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New Yorkers will find out the identity of their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who runs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has vowed to send armed forces to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the young democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an race that could be key to the direction that the party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to Americans' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the party perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of considered, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as polls show the present version of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on targeting Mamdani directly. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent elected, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had married a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced some challenges in recent days, after video emerged suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd