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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It commonly serves as a type of apology. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the largest improvement receives the prize. However, it creates an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or just the greatest upset.

However the current race is profoundly unique. The list of nominees is unusually deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference champions fading and longtime underperformers ascending collectively. In an ordinary season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's competing with multiple other elite candidates.

Here is how the ideal vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to spin magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a normal season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But this isn't a normal season!

Where his case runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. But he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the off-field stuff, which was not a given following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and experience, he hired first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has regressed after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him just one place ahead of peers.

Still